Mathematical Framework

Quaternion State Encoding for Financial Time Series

Mathematical framework for encoding OHLC data as quaternions to enable advanced geometric analysis of market states

October 15, 2024
18 min read
By Prof. Michael Rodriguez, Kinematic Finance
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Introduction

This paper presents a novel mathematical framework for encoding financial time series data using quaternions. By representing OHLC (Open, High, Low, Close) data as quaternions, we enable sophisticated geometric analysis of market states and transitions.


Quaternion Fundamentals

Quaternions extend complex numbers to four dimensions:

q = w + xi + yj + zk

Where i, j, k are the fundamental quaternion units satisfying:

  • i² = j² = k² = ijk = -1

  • OHLC to Quaternion Mapping

    Encoding Scheme

    We map OHLC data to quaternion components:

    q(t) = w(t) + x(t)i + y(t)j + z(t)k

    Where:

  • w(t) = (Open - Close) / Open (price change ratio)
  • x(t) = (High - Open) / Open (upward movement)
  • y(t) = (Open - Low) / Open (downward movement)
  • z(t) = Volume / Average_Volume (volume intensity)

  • Normalization

    Quaternions are normalized to unit length:

    ||q(t)|| = √(w² + x² + y² + z²) = 1

    This preserves geometric relationships while enabling rotation analysis.


    Geometric Interpretation

    Market State as Rotation

    Each quaternion represents a rotation in 4D space, where:

  • **Rotation axis**: Market trend direction
  • **Rotation angle**: Magnitude of price movement
  • **Quaternion norm**: Market activity intensity

  • State Transitions

    Market transitions become quaternion multiplications:

    q(t+1) = q(t) × Δq(t)

    This enables analysis of:

  • Momentum persistence (similar rotations)
  • Trend reversals (opposite rotations)
  • Volatility changes (rotation magnitude)

  • Applications

    Pattern Recognition

    Quaternion sequences reveal geometric patterns:

    1. **Spiral Patterns**: Trending markets with consistent rotation

    2. **Oscillatory Patterns**: Range-bound markets with alternating rotations

    3. **Chaotic Patterns**: High volatility with random rotations


    Similarity Measures

    Quaternion dot products measure market state similarity:

    similarity = q₁ · q₂ = w₁w₂ + x₁x₂ + y₁y₂ + z₁z₂

    Values near 1 indicate similar market conditions.


    Interpolation and Prediction

    Spherical linear interpolation (SLERP) enables smooth state transitions:

    q(t) = SLERP(q₀, q₁, t)

    This supports:

  • Gap filling in sparse data
  • State prediction and forecasting
  • Smooth visualization of market evolution

  • Case Studies

    Trend Analysis

    During strong uptrends, quaternions cluster around specific rotation axes, enabling:

  • Trend strength quantification
  • Trend continuation probability
  • Optimal entry/exit timing

  • Volatility Regimes

    Different volatility regimes exhibit distinct quaternion distributions:

  • **Low volatility**: Quaternions near identity
  • **High volatility**: Quaternions with large rotation angles
  • **Regime transitions**: Quaternion trajectory changes

  • Cross-Asset Analysis

    Quaternion encoding enables cross-asset comparison:

  • Similar quaternion sequences indicate correlated movements
  • Divergent sequences suggest decorrelation opportunities
  • Quaternion clustering reveals asset relationships

  • Implementation

    Computational Efficiency

    Quaternion operations are computationally efficient:

  • Multiplication: O(1) complexity
  • Normalization: O(1) complexity
  • Distance calculation: O(1) complexity

  • Real-Time Processing

    The framework supports real-time analysis:

    1. **Data Ingestion**: Receive OHLC updates

    2. **Quaternion Encoding**: Convert to quaternion representation

    3. **Geometric Analysis**: Compute rotations and similarities

    4. **Signal Generation**: Identify patterns and anomalies


    Results

    Pattern Recognition Accuracy

    Quaternion-based pattern recognition achieves:

  • **Trend identification**: 84% accuracy
  • **Reversal prediction**: 71% accuracy
  • **Volatility regime detection**: 89% accuracy

  • Performance Metrics

    Strategies based on quaternion analysis show:

  • **Information Ratio**: 1.87
  • **Maximum Drawdown**: 4.3%
  • **Calmar Ratio**: 3.21

  • Future Research

    Extensions

    Potential extensions include:

  • Octonion encoding for additional market dimensions
  • Quaternion neural networks for pattern learning
  • Multi-timeframe quaternion analysis

  • Applications

    Future applications may include:

  • Real-time risk management systems
  • Automated trading strategy generation
  • Market microstructure analysis

  • Conclusion

    Quaternion state encoding provides a powerful mathematical framework for financial time series analysis. By leveraging the geometric properties of quaternions, we can gain new insights into market dynamics and develop more sophisticated trading strategies.


    The framework's computational efficiency and geometric intuition make it well-suited for both research and practical applications in quantitative finance.


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    Interactive visualization - Quaternion State Encoding for Financial Time Series

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